Hurricane Florence

John,

Thank you for your comments and for engaging in ASCE's Collaborate community. The depth and breadth of ASCE's technical and geographic membership provides an invaluable resource for media.  As a consequence, the national and local media routinely contact ASCE for interviews and information following natural disasters. One note of caution when contacted by the media, volunteer leaders should coordinate any contact with the media through ASCE's Media Relations team in accordance with ASCE's Protocol for Media Outreach. As referenced in the protocol, please refer media calls to Emily Castellanos at 202-789-7846.

Our media relations team has prepared a number of ASCE members who are subject matter experts to speak with the media about the effects of Hurricane Florence on infrastructure in the path of the storm. These spokespeople have had active roles during previous disasters, such as Hurricanes Sandy and Harvey, and as far back as Hurricane Katrina. They are prepared and ready to relay the ASCE message and facts about hurricanes and flooding and their effects to the best of their abilities.  Our ASCE staff team will be fielding media calls through the weekend and connecting our members with appropriate media inquiries.

It is interesting to read the responses on this topic. Tom's discussion showing the NCAR image of modeled enhanced hurricane Florence rainfall due to climate change is quite instructive. I like Zimmermann's sentence: 'As an engineer, I am also a scientist.' Indeed, science is the illuminating torch an engineer needs to query, search for and provide solutions. While we may see more sharing of thoughts, I would like to share some more of my experiences – based on integrated hydrodynamic modeling of some aspects of past hurricanes, storm surges and wave actions – interestingly all occurring in the same month of September as Florence.

• Fortunately, for the hurricane affected areas in North and South Carolina, the landfall on September 14, 2018 occurred at a time just about 5 days after the spring tide. But the crawling Florence is merciless and incessant in pouring down heavy rainfall –while at the same time piling up coastal water with pounding waves – backing up the river flow and impeding drainage. Many aspects of the hurricane and impacts will only be known after assessments from all different angles, but the coincidence of hurricane Florence in USA with typhoon Mongkhut in Asia will be remembered for long time.
• Perhaps the answer to the popular question (enhanced storminess due to climate change) is not easy to answer – certainly not in definitive terms. Here are some lines from the NAP document Climate Change: Evidences and Causes (http://nap.edu/18730) that may shed some light: 'The impact of climate change on hurricane frequency . . . suggest that the strongest hurricanes (when they occur) are likely to become more intense and possibly larger in a warmer, moister atmosphere over the oceans.' 

John,

Thank you for your comments and for engaging in ASCE's Collaborate community. The depth and breadth of ASCE's technical and geographic membership provides an invaluable resource for media.  As a consequence, the national and local media routinely contact ASCE for interviews and information following natural disasters. One note of caution when contacted by the media, volunteer leaders should coordinate any contact with the media through ASCE's Media Relations team in accordance with ASCE's Protocol for Media Outreach. As referenced in the protocol, please refer media calls to Emily Castellanos at 202-789-7846.

Our media relations team has prepared a number of ASCE members who are subject matter experts to speak with the media about the effects of Hurricane Florence on infrastructure in the path of the storm. These spokespeople have had active roles during previous disasters, such as Hurricanes Sandy and Harvey, and as far back as Hurricane Katrina. They are prepared and ready to relay the ASCE message and facts about hurricanes and flooding and their effects to the best of their abilities.  Our ASCE staff team will be fielding media calls through the weekend and connecting our members with appropriate media inquiries.

It is interesting to read the responses on this topic. Tom's discussion showing the NCAR image of modeled enhanced hurricane Florence rainfall due to climate change is quite instructive. I like Zimmermann's sentence: 'As an engineer, I am also a scientist.' Indeed, science is the illuminating torch an engineer needs to query, search for and provide solutions. While we may see more sharing of thoughts, I would like to share some more of my experiences – based on integrated hydrodynamic modeling of some aspects of past hurricanes, storm surges and wave actions – interestingly all occurring in the same month of September as Florence.

• Fortunately, for the hurricane affected areas in North and South Carolina, the landfall on September 14, 2018 occurred at a time just about 5 days after the spring tide. But the crawling Florence is merciless and incessant in pouring down heavy rainfall –while at the same time piling up coastal water with pounding waves – backing up the river flow and impeding drainage. Many aspects of the hurricane and impacts will only be known after assessments from all different angles, but the coincidence of hurricane Florence in USA with typhoon Mongkhut in Asia will be remembered for long time.
• Perhaps the answer to the popular question (enhanced storminess due to climate change) is not easy to answer – certainly not in definitive terms. Here are some lines from the NAP document Climate Change: Evidences and Causes (http://nap.edu/18730) that may shed some light: 'The impact of climate change on hurricane frequency . . . suggest that the strongest hurricanes (when they occur) are likely to become more intense and possibly larger in a warmer, moister atmosphere over the oceans.' 

John,

Thank you for your comments and for engaging in ASCE's Collaborate community. The depth and breadth of ASCE's technical and geographic membership provides an invaluable resource for media.  As a consequence, the national and local media routinely contact ASCE for interviews and information following natural disasters. One note of caution when contacted by the media, volunteer leaders should coordinate any contact with the media through ASCE's Media Relations team in accordance with ASCE's Protocol for Media Outreach. As referenced in the protocol, please refer media calls to Emily Castellanos at 202-789-7846.

Our media relations team has prepared a number of ASCE members who are subject matter experts to speak with the media about the effects of Hurricane Florence on infrastructure in the path of the storm. These spokespeople have had active roles during previous disasters, such as Hurricanes Sandy and Harvey, and as far back as Hurricane Katrina. They are prepared and ready to relay the ASCE message and facts about hurricanes and flooding and their effects to the best of their abilities.  Our ASCE staff team will be fielding media calls through the weekend and connecting our members with appropriate media inquiries.

Following the comments of Chad Morrison, and in line with Alan Nelson's suggestions, I would like to add the following:

• Chad is right. The hurricane rating system – the Saffir-Simpson Scale is long outdated. It was developed in the 1970's following the aftermath of 1969 Hurricane Camille – as a scale for assessing the anticipated damage likely caused by hurricane wind and storm surge. It became popular after its adoption as a damage forecasting tool by the National Hurricane Center – and later on worldwide.
• Whenever a major hurricane strikes a coast, the inadequacy of the scale comes into question – and like other subjective scales like Beaufort Wind Scale or Enhanced Fujita Tornado Scale – the system is far from perfect. Because the scale does not take into account some major hurricane characteristics such as: (1) hurricane forward speed, (2) rainfall intensity, extent and duration, (3) wave action erosion and damage, (4) triggered tornados, and (5) rain flooding and damage. But on the other end, if one attempts to take account of all the characteristics, the system is likely to loose its simplicity and popular appeal. Perhaps a characterization that relates hurricane forward speed reciprocally to storm surge and rainfall would prove useful for the forecasting system.
• But some questions are not justified; because the scale is meant only as a generally applicable forecasting tool – perhaps what can be expected as a minimum – it is neither an indication of the actual local conditions and damage, nor of actual storm surge. Perhaps it is important that forecasters and newscasters indicate the usefulness of the Saffir-Simpson Scale as a general and preliminary forecasting tool – but stressing more on the real time simulations and developments. This will help minimizing the misunderstanding of people – for example, being complacent that Hurricane Florence was downgraded to a CAT-1 event during the landfall.   
• Similar misunderstanding arises when one refers an event to a certain return period. As an example, let us say, a 100-year event: it gives an impression that if this event occurs toady, we can feel safe that it will not occur in the next 100 years. But in reality, a 100-year event has 1% probability of occurrence in any given year.
• I have attached a pretty image prepared by NOAA showing the past (1950 – 2009) hurricane events along the mainland US coast. Hurricanes Isabel (2003), Frances and Jeanne (2004), and Ike (2008) were my focus of attention when I studied them.

It is interesting to read the responses on this topic. Tom's discussion showing the NCAR image of modeled enhanced hurricane Florence rainfall due to climate change is quite instructive. I like Zimmermann's sentence: 'As an engineer, I am also a scientist.' Indeed, science is the illuminating torch an engineer needs to query, search for and provide solutions. While we may see more sharing of thoughts, I would like to share some more of my experiences – based on integrated hydrodynamic modeling of some aspects of past hurricanes, storm surges and wave actions – interestingly all occurring in the same month of September as Florence.

• Fortunately, for the hurricane affected areas in North and South Carolina, the landfall on September 14, 2018 occurred at a time just about 5 days after the spring tide. But the crawling Florence is merciless and incessant in pouring down heavy rainfall –while at the same time piling up coastal water with pounding waves – backing up the river flow and impeding drainage. Many aspects of the hurricane and impacts will only be known after assessments from all different angles, but the coincidence of hurricane Florence in USA with typhoon Mongkhut in Asia will be remembered for long time.
• Perhaps the answer to the popular question (enhanced storminess due to climate change) is not easy to answer – certainly not in definitive terms. Here are some lines from the NAP document Climate Change: Evidences and Causes (http://nap.edu/18730) that may shed some light: 'The impact of climate change on hurricane frequency . . . suggest that the strongest hurricanes (when they occur) are likely to become more intense and possibly larger in a warmer, moister atmosphere over the oceans.' 

John,

Thank you for your comments and for engaging in ASCE's Collaborate community. The depth and breadth of ASCE's technical and geographic membership provides an invaluable resource for media.  As a consequence, the national and local media routinely contact ASCE for interviews and information following natural disasters. One note of caution when contacted by the media, volunteer leaders should coordinate any contact with the media through ASCE's Media Relations team in accordance with ASCE's Protocol for Media Outreach. As referenced in the protocol, please refer media calls to Emily Castellanos at 202-789-7846.

Our media relations team has prepared a number of ASCE members who are subject matter experts to speak with the media about the effects of Hurricane Florence on infrastructure in the path of the storm. These spokespeople have had active roles during previous disasters, such as Hurricanes Sandy and Harvey, and as far back as Hurricane Katrina. They are prepared and ready to relay the ASCE message and facts about hurricanes and flooding and their effects to the best of their abilities.  Our ASCE staff team will be fielding media calls through the weekend and connecting our members with appropriate media inquiries.

Following the comments of Chad Morrison, and in line with Alan Nelson's suggestions, I would like to add the following:

• Chad is right. The hurricane rating system – the Saffir-Simpson Scale is long outdated. It was developed in the 1970's following the aftermath of 1969 Hurricane Camille – as a scale for assessing the anticipated damage likely caused by hurricane wind and storm surge. It became popular after its adoption as a damage forecasting tool by the National Hurricane Center – and later on worldwide.
• Whenever a major hurricane strikes a coast, the inadequacy of the scale comes into question – and like other subjective scales like Beaufort Wind Scale or Enhanced Fujita Tornado Scale – the system is far from perfect. Because the scale does not take into account some major hurricane characteristics such as: (1) hurricane forward speed, (2) rainfall intensity, extent and duration, (3) wave action erosion and damage, (4) triggered tornados, and (5) rain flooding and damage. But on the other end, if one attempts to take account of all the characteristics, the system is likely to loose its simplicity and popular appeal. Perhaps a characterization that relates hurricane forward speed reciprocally to storm surge and rainfall would prove useful for the forecasting system.
• But some questions are not justified; because the scale is meant only as a generally applicable forecasting tool – perhaps what can be expected as a minimum – it is neither an indication of the actual local conditions and damage, nor of actual storm surge. Perhaps it is important that forecasters and newscasters indicate the usefulness of the Saffir-Simpson Scale as a general and preliminary forecasting tool – but stressing more on the real time simulations and developments. This will help minimizing the misunderstanding of people – for example, being complacent that Hurricane Florence was downgraded to a CAT-1 event during the landfall.   
• Similar misunderstanding arises when one refers an event to a certain return period. As an example, let us say, a 100-year event: it gives an impression that if this event occurs toady, we can feel safe that it will not occur in the next 100 years. But in reality, a 100-year event has 1% probability of occurrence in any given year.
• I have attached a pretty image prepared by NOAA showing the past (1950 – 2009) hurricane events along the mainland US coast. Hurricanes Isabel (2003), Frances and Jeanne (2004), and Ike (2008) were my focus of attention when I studied them.

It is interesting to read the responses on this topic. Tom's discussion showing the NCAR image of modeled enhanced hurricane Florence rainfall due to climate change is quite instructive. I like Zimmermann's sentence: 'As an engineer, I am also a scientist.' Indeed, science is the illuminating torch an engineer needs to query, search for and provide solutions. While we may see more sharing of thoughts, I would like to share some more of my experiences – based on integrated hydrodynamic modeling of some aspects of past hurricanes, storm surges and wave actions – interestingly all occurring in the same month of September as Florence.

• Fortunately, for the hurricane affected areas in North and South Carolina, the landfall on September 14, 2018 occurred at a time just about 5 days after the spring tide. But the crawling Florence is merciless and incessant in pouring down heavy rainfall –while at the same time piling up coastal water with pounding waves – backing up the river flow and impeding drainage. Many aspects of the hurricane and impacts will only be known after assessments from all different angles, but the coincidence of hurricane Florence in USA with typhoon Mongkhut in Asia will be remembered for long time.
• Perhaps the answer to the popular question (enhanced storminess due to climate change) is not easy to answer – certainly not in definitive terms. Here are some lines from the NAP document Climate Change: Evidences and Causes (http://nap.edu/18730) that may shed some light: 'The impact of climate change on hurricane frequency . . . suggest that the strongest hurricanes (when they occur) are likely to become more intense and possibly larger in a warmer, moister atmosphere over the oceans.' 

John,

Thank you for your comments and for engaging in ASCE's Collaborate community. The depth and breadth of ASCE's technical and geographic membership provides an invaluable resource for media.  As a consequence, the national and local media routinely contact ASCE for interviews and information following natural disasters. One note of caution when contacted by the media, volunteer leaders should coordinate any contact with the media through ASCE's Media Relations team in accordance with ASCE's Protocol for Media Outreach. As referenced in the protocol, please refer media calls to Emily Castellanos at 202-789-7846.

Our media relations team has prepared a number of ASCE members who are subject matter experts to speak with the media about the effects of Hurricane Florence on infrastructure in the path of the storm. These spokespeople have had active roles during previous disasters, such as Hurricanes Sandy and Harvey, and as far back as Hurricane Katrina. They are prepared and ready to relay the ASCE message and facts about hurricanes and flooding and their effects to the best of their abilities.  Our ASCE staff team will be fielding media calls through the weekend and connecting our members with appropriate media inquiries.