Environment, Coasts, Oceans, & Infrastructure

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  • 1.  Will Atlas 15 be Scientifically Sound?

    Posted 09-05-2025 12:32 PM

    Those of us who use NOAA's Atlas 14 for regional precipitation frequency design information were alarmed when the present Administration paused work on its successor, Atlas 15. Then we were relieved when they announced resumption of work. We need updated guidance reflecting climate changes that have occurred in the past 40 years and reasonably predicting the next 50 years under the several climate change scenarios projected by the National Research Council and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

    I am discouraged by the news that independent scientists have denounced a recent Department of Energy climate report for "cherry-picking of data, and faulty or absent statistics." (see link) If this an example of how Atlas 15 is to be completed, I fear our future stormwater designs will be faulty.

    Climate_Experts_Review_of_DOE_CWG_Report.pdf

     



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    William McAnally Ph.D.
    ENGINEER
    Columbus MS
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  • 2.  RE: Will Atlas 15 be Scientifically Sound?

    Posted 09-08-2025 10:07 AM

    Bill, I would like to see the update for PMP, probable maximum precipitation, as that has not been updated in more than 50 years in most locations.  PMP includes events with a return period greater than 1000 years.  Assigning a frequency to the rainfall in North Carolina and Tennessee from 2024 Hurricane Helene would have benefited from an updated PMP analysis.   NOAA indicates that if fully funded the first PMP estimates will be expected by June 2030.

    Atlas 15 for the contiguous US is scheduled to be available in 2025, 2026 time frame.  A subset of storm duration and average exceedance probabilities for Montana is now available online as a pilot program for early feedback.  It would be interesting to see what information is available regarding methodologies and assumptions.



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    Nancy Powell P.E., BC.NE, BC.WRE, M.ASCE
    Hilton Head Island SC
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  • 3.  RE: Will Atlas 15 be Scientifically Sound?

    Posted 09-08-2025 04:33 PM

    You make an excellent point, Nancy. The PMP reports are even older than the Atlas 14 tables.

    Bill Mc



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    William McAnally Ph.D., P.E., BC.CE, BC.NE, F.ASCE
    ENGINEER
    Columbus MS
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  • 4.  RE: Will Atlas 15 be Scientifically Sound?

    Posted 09-09-2025 10:33 AM

    Bill Mc, it's a big question. When empowered entities produce documents – they come with a sense of authority. Users and members of the general public are expected to have great trust on them. Documents as such of specialized nature – are supposed to be scientifically thorough and sound. But it doesn't mean their methods and conclusions are universally valid and beyond the purview of questions.

    But, any such questioning are expected to come from other experts in the same fields. What about some smart questions from the curious mind of rational thinkers. How to value them? Users can only hope that what they are using – are acceptable and defensible for their purpose.

    * * *

    And, in context, thanks for your reference of the Climate_Experts_Review_DOE_CWG Report. I haven't seen such an expert level passionate arguments and counter-arguments on climate change issues before. They are quite interesting and thought-provoking. I see such interactions healthy and productive.

    There are many one can highlight – but for the sake of brevity and my interest as in: 6. The Sun-Earth System – Entropy and Energy Balance of Warming Climate and Entropy, here is something I picked from the CWG Report (July 23, 2025) and the expert response to it (August 30, 2025).

    DOE: A Critical Review of Impacts of Greenhouse Gas Emissions on the U.S. Climate, CWG.

    On Page 11: 3 HUMAN INFLUENCES ON THE CLIMATE

    . . . The IPCC has downplayed the role of the sun in climate change but there are plausible solar irradiance reconstructions that imply it contributed to recent warming . . .

    Climate Experts' Review of the DOE CWG Report, response:

    On Page 60: . . . The report unjustifiably downplays human impact on warming, overstating solar influence and falsely suggesting human emissions are merely additive to natural variability . . .

    I wasn't expecting the word 'downplay' from both sides – yet it is there. Why not saying 'as-it-is' instead . . . What is wrong with saying that 'human emissions are merely additive to natural variability'. Why it's a false suggestion?

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    Dr. Dilip K Barua, Ph.D

    Website Links and Profile

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  • 5.  RE: Will Atlas 15 be Scientifically Sound?

    Posted 09-09-2025 10:33 AM

    Did you see that NOAA Atlas 14 Volume 13 Version 1 is out for comment until 9/15/2025? 

    https://hdsc.nws.noaa.gov/reviews/peer_review_volume_13/instructions/NA14Vol13_INSTRUCTIONS_FOR_PEER_REVIEWERS.pdf 



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    Andrew Potts P.E., F.EWRI, M.ASCE
    Water Resources Principal Technologist
    Jacobs
    Philadelphia PA
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  • 6.  RE: Will Atlas 15 be Scientifically Sound?

    Posted 09-09-2025 03:10 PM

    Thanks for the heads up, Andrew.



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    William McAnally Ph.D., P.E., BC.CE, BC.NE, F.ASCE
    ENGINEER
    Columbus MS
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