I propose:
a. We adopt the term "Composite Risk" (Capitalized) to denote what we are talking about.
b. Definition: Composite Risk is the combined probability of: circumstances causing negative or positive consequences and the magnitude of those consequences.
Modifications, rejections, or amens welcomed equally.
Rationale
The single word risk is used indiscriminately for a variety of related ideas that don't satisfy this definition. For example, the ASCE Hazard Tool defines risks to human safety only, neglecting economic consequences, many definitions mention only adverse consequences, and many mention only consequences without mentioning magnitudes.
The proposed definition includes the elements of probability, positive or negative causes, and magnitude of consequences. By explicitly assigning probability to both circumstances and consequences, I think it includes the multi-parameter equations described by Heather Brooks. (Conceptual Design of Quantitative Risk Algorithms for a Geohazard and Geo-asset Management System for Roadway Networks in Permafrost Regions).
ISO 31073:2022 defines "Risk : effect of uncertainty on objectives."
I like the Risk Primer's discussion of what risk is, constructed around the ISO's abstract and ambiguous definition. The Draft Primer can be found in this Community's Document Library, but we still need a distinct definition.
Bill Mc
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William McAnally Ph.D., P.E., BC.CE, BC.NE, F.ASCE
ENGINEER
Columbus MS
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