An alternative starting point is defining the end in mind. This avoids getting mired down in words and possible abstractions. I like how Kaplan and Garrick, in their 1981 paper On The Quantitative Definition of Risk (See https://www.nrc.gov/docs/ML1216/ML12167A133.pdf) get one to think about risk practically. Kaplan and Garrick break risk analysis down into answering these three questions: 1. What can go wrong? 2. How likely is it to go wrong? 3. If it does go wrong, what are the consequences? Kaplan and Garrick call this a triplet<S, P, X> where S is a scenario identification or description; P, is the probability of that scenario; and X, is the consequence or evaluation measure of that scenario, i.e., the measure of damage.
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Mitch Winkler P.E.(inactive), M.ASCE
Houston, TX
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Original Message:
Sent: 03-07-2025 10:24 AM
From: William McAnally
Subject: Risk Defined
Risk in the context of civil engineering is defined as comprising two distinct components: the probability of an event occurring and the magnitude of the consequences resulting from that event. This definition highlights that risk is not merely about the likelihood of adverse events, but also about the potential impact of those events. Managing risk effectively involves awareness of these factors and making informed design and regulatory decisions to mitigate potential issues.
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William McAnally Ph.D., P.E., BC.CE, BC.NE, F.ASCE
ENGINEER
Columbus MS
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