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  • 1.  Climate Change article #2

    Posted 02-15-2020 01:35 AM
      |   view attached

    More ASCE & the Global Climate Threat

     (Opinion by Public Affairs Chairman, Gregory Schroeder, P.E, M. ASCE) 
       Published in the Wisconsin Section February 2020 Newsletter

     

    A constituent was requesting action by a politician, and the politician explained that unless the phone was ringing, there was nothing that they could do.  The point is that unless the public is behind an issue in some significant way, any political action will have no traction. 

    The public has taken a massive turn in the average view of climate change. Look at the change in the views of the public in Australia.  Consider how fast and strong public views change when the impacts are on your soil, your home, your friends, and your relatives.  When considering Australia and other tragic extreme weather events, I would say that we are already well beyond the first deaths attributable to climate change. I would contend that if the wildfires of California or Australia were 1% worse due to climate change, then fewer deaths, injuries, and destruction would have happened without climate change.  Apply this same logic to the past ten years of extreme weather events such as hurricanes Harvey, Irma, Maria, and Superstorm Sandy.

    The public is now moving out in front on climate change.  Some businesses are showing leadership while most are sitting back or avoiding the issue. I am a bit amazed by the fact that the public energy utilities have shown leadership in taking action to reduce GHG emissions.  As evidence I would submit that the public energy utilities of Wisconsin met their CO2 reduction levels in 2013 several years ahead of the target dates, and they have not slowed down but are continuing to seek to lower GHG emissions.  So, the public is out front, the utilities are next, and the politicians are behind the utilities.  How far along is the engineering community, and ASCE in particular?   I hope to take up this topic in one of my next articles by reviewing the position papers, course offerings, and the national infrastructure report card, all specifically with respect to the climate crisis.  One positive for ASCE is Robin Kemper's President's note in the April 2019 Civil Engineer magazine where she says, "Earth Day continues to give a voice to environmental issues and remind us that we must do our part to save the planet from the harmful effects of climate change.  Climate-change-induced events are threatening lives the economy and our infrastructure. These effects will continue through this century and beyond, resulting in more frequent wildfires, longer periods of drought, stronger storms, temperature increases and elevated sea levels…"

    Similar to the politician above that can't act without public pressure, ASCE leadership cannot move significantly without a strong push from the membership.  How did the broader public's position shift so rapidly?  I think that empathy with the suffering and fear that a climate catastrophe could happen to me are very motivating.  I am interested in increasing our focus on climate, and the only way that I know to do that is with ASCE Collaborate.  The problem is that not enough of us at the ASCE section level are using and monitoring ASCE Collaborate.  This has to change. 

    I now receive an email message when a comment is posted on my articles.  It's a thrill to see some activity, whether it is supportive or challenging my positions.  The problem is that the 'phone' is not ringing off of the hook.  I received some very positive, supportive comments on my last article.  Those were wonderful and built and expanded on my thoughts.  I also received a respectful and thoughtful challenge to my article which was equally welcome, because a challenge has even greater potential to advance the discussion.  I felt that I did not want to create a one on one debate with this author, so I waited for others to respond.  I waited.  Then I waited.  And then I waited some more.  Alas, still waiting.  I have extreme confidence that our membership is not without opinions, the great majority are just not looking at Collaborate, nor have we learned to use it to set up notifications of postings to the WI Section Group discussions. 

    We as individuals and as members of various constituent groups can start to address GHG (greenhouse gas) and climate issues or we can ignore the evidence.  Whether we do or do not we will be judged by history.  I would like us to consider an application of Blaise Pascal's law to our action or inaction on the climate crisis.  In brief, Pascal's logical argument was that if you live a life of faith in God and there is no God you lose nothing, but if you reject God and he is in fact your judge then you have risked everything.  So, if as Americans we continue to generate more GHG per capita than others in the world and the climate crisis continues to worsen and costs more lives and threatens every aspect of life on earth we will be judged most harshly by history.  On the other hand if we aggressively address GHG emissions and then there is a sudden reversal in the warming of the earth that no one could have foreseen we have risked relatively little.  Logic would dictate that we start to take climate change seriously and work to stop or reverse the impacts without delay.   

    My argument has a further application to our society of Professional Engineers.  The scientific community is overwhelmingly warning of the climate crisis.  If we do not provide leadership in addressing the climate issues in our work products, and if the scientists are proven correct by disaster upon disaster, the professional engineer will be judged most harshly and deservedly so!  On the other hand what if the engineering community begins to lead in matters of climate management and reduction of GHG emissions?  The range of outcomes includes; 1) all of the science was flawed, but we acted appropriately with respect to the scientific consensus, or 2) we ignored all warnings and fiddled while the earth burned. 

    We differentiate ourselves (engineers) from scientists.  We get things done: the built environment as well as management of the natural environment.  We expect respect from the scientific community in what we do in our profession. Should we not respect the scientific community within their area of expertise?  The overwhelming majority of scientists believe that the earth is now in a time of accelerating climate change and that it necessitates that we reduce GHG emissions as fast as we possibly can.  Shall we appoint ourselves the scientists AND the engineers, or are we the engineers and basing our work upon the overwhelming scientific consensus?  This article will be posted on ASCE Collaborate on the Wisconsin Section discussion board by the time this reaches you via email. 

     

    Here are some valuable resources that have been recommended to me.

    https://climate.nasa.gov/scientific-consensus/

    http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1/

    https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/climate-change-indicators-atmospheric-concentrations-greenhouse-gases

    The opinions expressed here are those of the author only, and do not necessarily represent the views of his employer, the Wisconsin Section, or ASCE.



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    Gregory Schroeder P.E., M.ASCE
    Senior Engineer
    Lake Geneva WI
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    Attachment(s)

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    Greg February opinion.docx   17 KB 1 version


  • 2.  RE: Climate Change article #2

    Posted 02-16-2020 01:41 PM
    Edited by George Barker 02-16-2020 10:29 PM
    You nearly lost me at "When considering Australia and other tragic extreme weather events", and that was pretty early.  It is my understanding the wildfires have been happening in Australia every year, to one degree or another, for a long time.  I see there are even sick individuals who find some pleasure in starting a wildfire and others who are careless or willfully ignore the laws.  See the Newsweek (in no way a climate denier source of information) article indicating enough of the wildfires are "anthropogenic" as to cast doubt in the debate of how much climate change (global warming) is leading to the fires.

    https://www.newsweek.com/australia-wildfires-arson-new-south-wales-police-1480733

    With and eye toward the future, my questions are these; Will putting the climate on the ASCE report card do any substantive good?  And, when the politicians ask us engineers where to spend our limited funds, will we choose infrastructure or green technology?  Will we choose free college tuition or better roads?

    ------------------------------
    George Barker, PE, LEED AP
    Senior Engineer
    Appleton WI
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  • 3.  RE: Climate Change article #2

    Posted 03-04-2020 10:44 PM

    George, thank you for recommending the Newsweek article.  I highly recommend that others read it as well.  Besides calling out the arsonists the article includes many statements like this; "The dangerous fire weather conditions during spring 2019 is consistent with the increasingly severe fire weather seen in many areas of the country, owing to increasing temperatures and reduced cool season rainfall,"  I appreciate the fact that you say that I ALMOST lost you, implying that you likely did stick with my article until the end!  I think the questions that you ask are worthy, and I hope they inspire others to join the conversation.



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    Gregory Schroeder P.E., M.ASCE
    Senior Engineer
    Lake Geneva WI
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  • 4.  RE: Climate Change article #2

    Posted 03-03-2020 10:52 AM
    Greg, thanks for sharing your opinion and soliciting comments.

    First, I have not yet aligned myself with either the advocates for climate change nor the "deniers;" I simply have not done enough reading and research to take a defensible stand.  That said, I would still offer some of my personal comments.

    My mode of operation has been/is you can never have enough data.  Do we really have enough data to be drawing such detailed (to the tenth of degrees) forecasts.  Given the relatively short (considering the history of the planet) data set, maybe we are looking at "localized trends."  Even so, this is a legitimate reason(s) to start looking at revising some design standards/procedures.  In hydrology we talk about the 100-year event which is statistically based.  Perhaps the domain of those statistics needs to be expanded to reevaluate the metric based on localized climate changes.

    No doubt, some of what humans have done may have contributed to climate change.  However, there are many natural events (volcanoes, earthquakes, hurricanes, tsunamis, floods, etc) that have also contributed to climate change.  If we recognize these changes, why not endeavor to adapt to the change rather than control such an enormous and complex system as climate?

    I cringe when I see this topic being bantered about by the politicians--both parties.  I think Greg is right that we have some professional responsibility to be aware of changes and take appropriate action.  I am not convinced that some of the actions proposed can have significant impact given some of the randomness of nature.  However, we have a duty to protect public health, safety and welfare which can include revising design standards and codes in response to new empirical data.

    Given the current state of our local, state (2020 Wisconsin Infrastructure Report Card to be released this spring), and national (National Infrastructure Report Card), infrastructure, I think we need to be very careful about how we allocate our limited resources.  Prioritization of projects, and careful evaluation of alternative designs have never been more important.

    There is SO much information out there making it very difficult to discern the relative creditably of any website.  To only further the reading on the subject, I offer the Friends of Science.  I only recently was referred to this website.  I am not a member and  I have not read the entire site content.  It is only offered to expand these discussions.

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    Martin Hanson P.E., F.ASCE
    Starboard Tack Consulting
    Eau Claire WI
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