I am glad to see an opinion piece published in the ASCE WI Section newsletter. When I was involved in the Section leadership and newsletter, I enjoyed writing opinion pieces and I encourage others to write them as well.
This is certainly a worthwhile topic to discuss, and I was encouraged by much of the article. He accurately identifies many of the roadblocks to implementing major change on a global level, and identifies many past and ongoing blunders relative to human impacts on portions of the earth. Too much of what we do, as individuals and as societies, is short-sighted and focused on personal benefit without adequate consideration of wider impacts. However, I believe that the article falls short in: 1) its presumption of significant anthropocentric contributions to past changes in climate, 2) its reference to recent weather events as demonstration of long-term changes in climate, and 3) its condescending dismissal of those who are unconvinced of an existential threat posed by a changing climate.
1) Dr. DeFelice addresses this aspect in his thoughtful response in this ASCE Collaborate thread. There is little doubt that the earth has experienced significant changes in climate during the span of its existence, and it is highly likely that such changes are ongoing now. This entire topic needs a lot more research and depth of understanding before ASCE and civil engineers, as rational leaders, jump on a bandwagon driven largely by a team of political horses. ASCE's vision statements indicate a desire to be managers of risk – this requires a more balanced approach to a highly impactful issue than is proposed by Mr. Gregory's article. The data are insufficient and the models are poorly calibrated. If we are going to be leaders, we should be voices of caution in this regard, encouraging a thorough evaluation of all information, including information that does not fit a foregone conclusion.
2) Many of the recent extreme weather events get close to breaking records that were set back in the 1930s, before major greenhouse-gas-producing industrialization reached a global scale. The increase in reporting of extreme events does not prove there are more events – it can reflect the improved ability to disseminate information. It can also reflect confirmation bias and the tendency to publish information that fits the worldview of the publishers. Again, if ASCE is going to be a leader, we need to step back from ourselves and our own interests (and our political leanings) and be the rational gatherers and evaluators of information that we claim to be.
3) The condescending reference to those who disagree with much of the "climate change" rhetoric as "deniers of unwelcome facts" was most disappointing to read. Yes, it is a quirk of human psychology that many of us want to deny the existence of bad news. That could equally explain why many climate change advocates refuse to acknowledge the data that is contrary to their theory. There are other psychological quirks and logical fallacies that could also come into play to lead us astray here. One I mentioned above – confirmation bias, the tendency to see things that support our position and overlook things that don't. Another quirk is that we tend to support the side of an argument that is in our interests, whether financial or professional prestige. For example: if there are going to be more extreme meteorological events or rises in ocean level, then there is going to be some great business generated for civil engineers; if these events are going to happen, we can all make a lot of money and gain prestige by being at the forefront of developing protective measures. So it is in our apparent interests to do all we can to convince everyone that the "if" is true and there is a need to pour vast resources into addressing those needs. If the need is real, we would just happen to be among those whose skill sets would help alleviate the problems. That is all good. But it does create a potential conflict of interests for us, meaning we must be doubly vigilant. Yet another fallacy that we risk is one that leads us to support all arguments and proposals made by those who support the same narrative but for different reasons – the "enemy of my enemy is my friend" type of fallacy. I'm sure there's a more scientific name for it. And many of those pushing the climate change narrative are not doing so for reasons of developing infrastructure to mitigate its impacts. They are using it as a basis for controlling the economy, redistributing wealth, and gaining votes potentially at a high cost to the public health and welfare. We need to be careful and keep in mind all of our code of ethics.
The cost to the public, whose health and welfare we are charged with protecting, of wrong decisions in this matter are potentially very high. If we err in either direction on this issue, there could be severe health and economic consequences. Because of this, I believe that the approach we should be taking to this issue, as ASCE, is:
· To evaluate all available information, including that which runs contrary to the current political winds and to our own personal interests and leanings.
· To not dismiss, exclude, or condescend to those who do not agree with us on this.
· To evaluate the consequences of proposed courses of action or inaction.
· To not advocate for a solution until the problem is well understood.
· To advocate for continued collection and analysis of objective data, and the development of better and more accurate predictive models, calibrated to measurable and verifiable occurrences.
· Examine of proposed technological or political solution to these problems for their potential to create yet other problems.
· To not use the severe consequences of highly unlikely predictions as a basis for recommending action but instead, rationally and clearly present a spectrum of potential outcomes along with their associated likelihoods of occurring and the costs of mitigating (and not mitigating) those risks.
· To keep our focus on engineering solutions and not endorse or support political solutions.
· Be open in our acknowledgement of the potential gains for the civil engineering profession as a result of implementing certain solutions.
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William Meyer P.E., M.ASCE
Senior Project Manager
Hanson Professional Services, Inc.
(The above is my opinion and does not reflect that of Hanson Professional Services Inc.)
Brokaw WI
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Original Message:
Sent: 11-13-2019 18:22
From: Gregory Schroeder
Subject: Civil Engineers & Climate Change
Please offer your comments and responses to the attached article from the ASCE Wisconsin Section November 2019 newsletter on the engineer and climate change.
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Gregory Schroeder P.E., M.ASCE
Senior Engineer
Lake Geneva WI
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