Risk Management

 According to the ASCE Infrastructure Report Card (2025), the dam sector received a grade of D+, reflecting a fragile structural situation: more than 92,000 dams nationwide, with an average age of 64 years, including 17,000 classified as high‑hazard potential, and over 2,500 already in poor or unsatisfactory condition. The report stresses that urgent maintenance is essential to prevent catastrophic risks.

At the same time, the report highlights broad climatic factors - such as extreme rainfall, recurring floods, and rare hydrological events - which are increasingly exerting pressure on aging dams beyond their original design capacity.

To connect these broad climatic factors mentioned in the report with observed realities on the ground, I analyzed summer (JJA) runoff data from NASA's FLDAS satellite system using the FLDASNOAH01CGLM v001 model covering the period 1982–2026 shown in chart below:

The attached chart (Interannual Summer Runoff Variability) clearly shows fluctuations and an overall increasing trend in summer runoff, driven by convective storms and monsoon rainfall. This confirms that climate extremes are not theoretical projections but recurring, scientifically documented realities.  

This linkage between the report's findings and field‑observed data strengthens the argument: urgent maintenance and rehabilitation  are not optional but necessary, and any delay in funding multiplies risks for downstream communities and interconnected infrastructure.

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The critical question remains: what can engineers do now to safeguard critical infrastructure?

In my view, and until adequate rehabilitation funding is secured, we can adapt the ALARP principle as a temporary preventive measure, by operating dams within a defined Operational Safety Envelope, including:  

- Enhanced monitoring and surveillance  

- Early activation of emergency action plans  

- Reducing operational loads when extreme climatic events are forecast  

This adaptation does not solve the structural problem permanently, but it reduces risks to the lowest level reasonably practicable, providing an additional protective layer for communities and infrastructure facing escalating climate extremes.

Importantly, this approach aligns directly with the report's emphasis on Risk‑Informed Decision Making (RIDM). ALARP can be seen as a practical extension of RIDM, ensuring risks are kept within tolerable limits until full rehabilitation becomes possible.

Based on observations, this phenomenon occurred around the globe, and affected most aging dams: so what ideas can engineers explore now to prevent aging dams from collapsing into catastrophic failures?

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Abubakr Gameil, R. ENG, M. ASCE®️,
MSc-Holder, [ SEI, EWRI, CI, ISSMGE ]Mermber
Past / Chairman & Director General
Almanassa Engineering International Co. Ltd,
Khartoum, Sudan
Currently / UAE- Humanitariam Residency
NXN- Central branch -Al Fujairah,
PO.Box : 1142 (Fujairah)
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I believe your suggestions for how engineers can safeguard critical infrastructure are excellent. The alternative, doing nothing, is simply unacceptable. It's also interesting that the reference you provided dismisses Risk-Informed Decision Making (RIDM) due to its high costs. I looked into the basis for this claim and found the referenced U.S. government document. Here is what it states: 

While dam safety experts say RIDM and its components (e.g., comprehensive assessments) are needed to prevent incidents such as those experienced recently,^{https://damsafety-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/files/Edenville-Sanford_Final%20Report_Main%20Report%20and%20Appendices.pdf ." target="_blank" rel="noopener">148} incorporating these practices may require development of new guidelines, certain personnel expertise, and more financial resources.¹⁴⁹ For example, comprehensive assessments are more costly than visual inspections and can require certain inspection expertise. 

Does RIDM have to be costly? Is this a case of being too overly reliant on precision when accuracy is good enough?

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Mitch Winkler P.E.(inactive), M.ASCE
Houston, TX
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