Risk Management

  • 1.  Application of AI for Risk Assessments

    Posted 20 days ago

    How would one go about doing this? Is anyone familiar with a successful application? Are specialized data sets required? What are the pitfalls? This is all new to me :)



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    Mitch Winkler P.E.(inactive), M.ASCE
    Houston, TX
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  • 2.  RE: Application of AI for Risk Assessments

    Posted 9 days ago
    Edited by William McAnally 9 days ago

    My AI experience has not overlapped with my risk assessment/management experience, so the short answer to Mitch's excellent question is that I don't know.

    A longer answer is that I asked Google's Gemini AI and got responses that contain useful ideas (e.g. using AI image analysis to detect cracks) but seem misleading in some respects.

    You can read Gemini's responses in the library entries below:

    •          How to use AI to manage infrastructure risk?
    •          How to use AI to assess infrastructure risk?

    Neither response explicitly mentions consequences, which are an essential component of risk. That reflects a common failure of our literature, which tends to use "risk" and "threat" interchangeably. Large Language AI only regurgitates what it reads.

    Does anyone have suggestions on how to make AI work best for risk assessment and management, including consequences?



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    William McAnally Ph.D., P.E., BC.CE, BC.NE, F.ASCE
    ENGINEER
    Columbus MS
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    Attachment(s)

    pdf
    AssessRiskWithAI.pdf   186 KB 1 version
    pdf
    ManageRiskWithAI.pdf   3.88 MB 1 version


  • 3.  RE: Application of AI for Risk Assessments

    Posted 21 hours ago
    Edited by Abubakr Gameil 21 hours ago

    Hi Mitch,

    Thanks for throwing these great questions into the mix. It's the perfect time to look at what's actually happening behind the "black box" of generative AI. LLMs don't understand engineering intent; they simply predict the most statistically probable next token. This explains the exact frustration Bill pointed out-why standard AI often just echoes back what you want to hear. The output is entirely trapped by the immediate context it's fed.

    To solve this, I use a Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) architecture within a closed environment, giving the AI access only to a verified reference library. I deploy this natively using Power Apps and Power Automate (AI Builder).

    I recently stress-tested this exact low-code framework under extreme constraints in a high-stakes crisis environment. Operating within a strict 72-hour execution window "For more information; kindly see my LinkedIn post , we used it to handle complex, multi-type data influxes, real-time mapping, and automated sorting for thousands of data points. The system held because we tightly controlled the hyperparameters to maintain absolute data integrity:

    Temperature (Creativity): Dropped to the lowest quadrant. This forces the AI to be strict and deterministic, sticking 100% to verified reference files instead of being "creative."

    Precision (Top_p): Capped below average to restrict wild logical leaps and completely prevent "hallucinations."

    Whether you are managing emergency logistics or structural risk assessments, the professional workflow remains identical:

    Isolate the Repository: Lock down your clean codes, specific contracts, or standard procedures (your RAG library).

    Target the Prompts: Instruct the AI to map and extract risk types, levels, and consequences only from those source files.

    Calibrate Thresholds: Lower both temperature and precision settings.

    Validate: Run rigorous testing loops inside that closed library before relying on the output.

    Recommendation:

    Use this setup strictly as a first pass during the initial risk identification phase to stretch your thinking and catch blind spots. It is a powerful assistant for handling massive data, but it is not an autopilot. You absolutely still need a highly experienced team of risk professionals at the wheel to audit the system and make the final, critical action.

    Best regards,



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    Abubakr Gameil, R. ENG, M. ASCE®️,
    MSc-Holder, [ SEI, EWRI, CI, ISSMGE ]Mermber
    Past / Chairman & Director General
    Almanassa Engineering International Co. Ltd,
    Khartoum, Sudan
    Currently / UAE- Humanitariam Residency
    NXN- Central branch -Al Fujairah,
    PO.Box : 1142 (Fujairah)
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  • 4.  RE: Application of AI for Risk Assessments

    Posted 14 hours ago

    Wow! That sounds impressive, Jameel. The LinkedIn post is intriguing. I hope we can hear more about your team's work here in the CoP.

    Bill Mc



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    William McAnally Ph.D., P.E., BC.CE, BC.NE, F.ASCE
    ENGINEER
    Columbus MS
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  • 5.  RE: Application of AI for Risk Assessments

    Posted 13 hours ago
    Edited by Abubakr Gameil 12 hours ago

    Thank you Bill, I promise I will. Actually there are three Initiatives ( Refugees replacement-2023, Feeding Aid - (2024), and statistic programe to support people after crises - (2025) respectfully, All of these had been an AI-based with deferent types of machine learning.

    The first one based on Automation with analytic AI- Jason code ,using (Microsoft Form, Excel, Power Automate, powerBI) tools, 

    The data  sets were, Qualitative, Quantitative and spatial.

    The second one, was based on Analytic -AI mainly using synchronized spread sheet and PowerBI, the data were also came from deferent nature (qualitative, Quantitative and spatial )

    The last one was more complexity , It was built on LLM/ RAG machine learning, Low code AI ,Automation, using microsoft form, spread sheet,power Automate, AI-Builder, PowerApp ( to build smart UI) and  PowerBI for analysis.

    Bill, really I do not know know what is the right context should I elaborate each one, If you have any suggestion I would be happy to see.

    Thank you very much and welcome



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    Abubakr Gameil, R. ENG, M. ASCE®️,
    MSc-Holder, [ SEI, EWRI, CI, ISSMGE ]Mermber
    Past / Chairman & Director General
    Almanassa Engineering International Co. Ltd,
    Khartoum, Sudan
    Currently / UAE- Humanitariam Residency
    NXN- Central branch -Al Fujairah,
    PO.Box : 1142 (Fujairah)
    ------------------------------