Discussion: View Thread

Hurricane Dorian

  • 1.  Hurricane Dorian

    Posted 08-30-2019 02:12 PM
    Edited by Tirza Austin 09-03-2019 03:16 PM
    All of our members along the East Coast are in our thoughts this weekend as the states prepare for what could be the strongest hurricane to hit the East Coast in three decades. If you are looking for opportunities to contribute to the relief effort, you can do so here.

    This thread is for members to share personal experiences, facilitate assistance with hurricane related questions, and discuss the technical aspects of Hurricane Dorian.


    ------------------------------
    Tirza Austin
    Senior Coordinator, Online Community
    American Society of Civil Engineers
    1801 Alexander Bell Drive
    Reston, VA 20191
    ------------------------------


  • 2.  RE: Hurricane Dorian

    Posted 09-03-2019 03:16 PM
    Edited by Tirza Austin 09-03-2019 03:16 PM

    It is great to see the discussion on Hurricane Dorian initiated. As we speak, the Hurricane, after inflicting catastrophic havoc to the Bahamas, is now rated as CAT-2, and is forcasted to pursue a northeastern trajectory hugging the Florida coast, perhaps encountering the coasts of the Carolinas. People who have bitter and agonizing experience with Hurricanes know by now – what a slow moving, coast-hugging storm means in terms of incessant rainfall, sustained storm surge and wind damage.

    If one is in the storm trajectory cone, perhaps one would pray for High Pressure domes in their area – because such domes can force a Low Pressure storm to find a different trajectory. Thanks to such domes, H. Dorian will probably spare the US southeast coasts by not making a landfall.    

    Let us discuss further on this storm, as well as in general. I have a piece on storm surge in my website: https://widecanvas.weebly.com/science--technology/storm-surge
    There is also a very interesting National Academies Press publication: Attribution of Extreme Weather Events in the Context of Climate Change: https://www.nap.edu/21852

                               



    ------------------------------
    Dr. Dilip Barua, Ph.D, P.Eng, M. ASCE
    Vancouver, BC, Canada
    Website: https://widecanvas.weebly.com
    ------------------------------



  • 3.  RE: Hurricane Dorian

    Posted 09-04-2019 07:47 AM
    In the east we have hurricanes, the mid-west has tornadoes, the west coast has fires and mud slides and they worry about earthquakes. Not sure which is worse - depends on where you are, perhaps. 
    But at least with hurricanes we can see them coming and can have a couple of days to get ready.


    ------------------------------
    Robert Foster P.E., L.S., M.ASCE
    Owner
    Hopkinton MA
    ------------------------------



  • 4.  RE: Hurricane Dorian

    Posted 09-05-2019 11:11 AM
    Edited by Tirza Austin 09-05-2019 11:11 AM
    Having been a Water/Wastewater utility Director in Palm Beach County, FL, I have learned a lot of lessons about how to mitigate the impact of such storms to our customers.  The single word that describes it all is:  PREPAREDNESS.  Until the 2004 and 2005 hurricane seasons, PBC had not been hit directly by a major hurricane for nearly 30 years.  That came to a screeching halt in early September 2004 with back to back hurricanes Frances and Jean, and 2005 with Wilma. The biggest impact by far with these Cat 1-3 hurricanes is extended power outages, and of course flooding if you have a plant or major pump stations near the coast.  Devastating Cat 5 hurricanes like Andrew in Miami in 1992 and Dorian in the Bahamas this week are a different story, of course, and about the only thing that can be done in these cases is recovery as quickly as possible, for which advance plans can be made.

    The impacts of the three 2004-5 hurricanes in PBC were these:

    1.  Extended power outages which caused sewer backups into streets and homes.  Being a flat county elevation-wise, PBC has over 900 pump stations; neighborhood, master and regional stations.  In 2004 only the regional stations had back-up generators supplemented by about 25 mobile generators. When our power went out system-wide for over 10-days, even with help from other Florida utilities, we didn't have enough generator capacity to keep up.  We also didn't have enough fuel for the generators we did have, and fuel deliveries were also significantly impacted. 

    2.  Low water pressure resulting in boil water notices due to big trees uprooting 4-6" water lines throughout the system reducing pressure as well as reduced water plant production due to minimal damage to water treatment plants and insufficient emergency generator capacity in our well fields.

    3.  PBC is an inland utility and did not have flooding problems, but the utilities along the coast did and when a plant or pump station is flooded,  it is out of commission for a long time. 

    After the 2005 season we developed a new preparedness plan and presented it, along with a $19 million funding request, to our Board of County Commissioners. The crux of the plan was 100 new mobile generators for the ww pump stations and well fields. The w/ww plant generators were upgraded and underground fuel tanks added for a 30-day fuel supply. The plants were further hardened.  Along with the new generators came 19 new personnel (out of 500 previous  employees) to maintain and man the generators.  A completely new Preparedness and Response Plan was developed.  We joined the newly formed regional response group called Florida Warn, which led to each Florida utility to create rapid response assistance teams  The good part about Florida Warn was the Interlocal Agreement everyone signed that detailed the logistics and administration for such assistance ahead of time so that there would be no confusion during or after the storm.  While flooding was not our concern, I am currently consulting with Binghamton, NY whose 50-MGD wastewater treatment plant was completely wiped out in a 2011 500-year storm event along the Susquehanna River. As part of their reconstruction they are building a flood wall around the new plant to contain such future floods.

    While Dorian mostly spared PBC, I am confident that our new PREPAREDNESS would have mitigated the storm impacts.  Does anyone else have suggestions for others, not only w/ww utilities, but stormwater and transportation networks, that would increase PREPAREDNESS for hurricanes?

    ------------------------------
    Bevin Beaudet P.E., M.ASCE
    President/Owner
    Bevin A. Beaudet, P.E., LLC.
    West Palm Beach FL
    ------------------------------



  • 5.  RE: Hurricane Dorian

    Posted 09-05-2019 03:05 PM
    Edited by Tirza Austin 09-05-2019 03:05 PM
      |   view attached
    Bevin - thank you for bringing in some of your experiences. Each time, such natural disasters happen, we wake up to note the vulnerability of our lives and engineering infrastructure - we thought we're safe and sound. How far can engineering communities go to account for full-proof safety? Such safety assurances do not exist - or do they?

    I leave the question open for us to ponder from the angles of all different contexts. In response to Robert's point, for now, I have included an image of global natural disasters happened in 2012 (thanks to a Munich organization). Only likely to increase in intensity and frequency in the future - as our climate scientists warn!

    ------------------------------
    Dr. Dilip Barua, Ph.D, P.Eng, M. ASCE
    Vancouver, BC, Canada
    Website: https://widecanvas.weebly.com
    ------------------------------



  • 6.  RE: Hurricane Dorian

    Posted 09-05-2019 04:37 PM
    Now that we know what happened in Bahamas, maybe the best thing that ASCE can do is send some structural experts down there, assess what worked; what buildings are still standing and why. Because now that we have evidence of a CAT5, 185 mph winds that hit the place for hours and hours, is this the new normal? Do they need to re-think what is safe and what is not?  Do they need to reassess flood potential for wave action?  I believe this is unprecedented but could fortell the future in the Caribbean.

    ------------------------------
    Larry Madrid P.E., D.GE, F.ASCE
    President
    Madrid Engineering Group Inc
    Bartow FL
    ------------------------------



  • 7.  RE: Hurricane Dorian

    Posted 09-05-2019 05:02 PM
    Edited by Tirza Austin 09-05-2019 05:01 PM
    I like the way you're thinking @Larry Madrid! I've lived in Florida for over 40 years and have been through many of these storms. I also visit the Caribbean islands quite often and marvel at the different techniques used throughout the islands. Very different standards from place to place. I know my academic friends at UF, UCF, and FIU as well as ASCE have done some great work in improving the built environment for hurricanes for Florida. In fact, I believe the Department of Construction and Planning at UF has been trying to hire additional researchers specific to resilient infrastructure for a while. Seems this event may provide a good data field. ​

    My specialty has always been implementation as opposed to design so I'd be very curious to follow the data and see what other low hanging fruit can be plucked from lessons learned. When building in different environments, it's important to draw lessons from the 1970's "appropriate technology" movement, - adapting to local conditions, local materials, regulatory environments, social influences, etc. This is often more difficult than the equations.

    ------------------------------
    Jesse Kamm PhD, PMP, A.M.ASCE
    Senior Vice President of Construction Management
    ------------------------------



  • 8.  RE: Hurricane Dorian

    Posted 09-06-2019 12:39 PM
    Edited by Tirza Austin 09-06-2019 12:39 PM
    I'm encouraged by the increasing focus in our industry on preparedness and resiliency to mitigate the effects of future events. In the next year, FEMA will go live with its new BRIC (Building Resilient Infrastructure & Communities) program, which allocates funding for communities to implement more pre-disaster mitigation.

    If you have been impacted by this storm and will be seeking FEMA funding, don't go in alone - find an industry partner who is experienced in the process to maximize your chance at recovery and minimize downtime.

    ------------------------------
    Brian Tracy P.E., M.ASCE
    Group Manager
    Marina CA
    ------------------------------



  • 9.  RE: Hurricane Dorian

    Posted 09-06-2019 04:07 PM
    The Netherlands is a poster-child for resiliency. They purposefully went very strong on their plan to make sure they don't get overwhelmed with high water and as a result have avoided a lot of flood damage over the years.

    ------------------------------
    Larry Madrid P.E., D.GE, F.ASCE
    President
    Madrid Engineering Group Inc
    Bartow FL
    ------------------------------



  • 10.  RE: Hurricane Dorian

    Posted 09-06-2019 12:55 PM
    I see that ASCE has a new document for wind damage. Maybe that could be incorporated into the Bahamas structural assessment.

    ------------------------------
    Larry Madrid P.E., D.GE, F.ASCE
    President
    Madrid Engineering Group Inc
    Bartow FL
    ------------------------------



  • 11.  RE: Hurricane Dorian

    Posted 09-07-2019 11:46 PM

    The Hurricane havoc and damages lead us time and again to the vulnerability of engineering infrastructure. Two particular cases in points:

    1. The first is the power outage – when power goes, everything falls apart. With overhead power distribution systems, we see power outages even during Gale Force (32 – 74 mph) winds. Consumers and general members of the public question the rationality of relying on such systems. In many European countries consumer power distribution lines are buried underground. Why not follow the same system? How developed are we really? If Europeans can justify it, why not North Americans?
    2. The second is very obvious – that wooden structures become the first casualty in the storm damage stream. If one analyzes carefully, wooden homes and structures are very common in countries where timber producing forests are abundant. But look at southern Europe, Middle East, and many Asian countries – where rich or poor, most are concrete houses. Even without being a fan of using concretes everywhere – one can hardly afford not to think of alternatives, or of further robustness of housing infrastructure – perhaps in a different sort of way.                          


    ------------------------------
    Dr. Dilip Barua, Ph.D, P.Eng, M. ASCE
    Vancouver, BC, Canada
    Website: https://widecanvas.weebly.com
    ------------------------------



  • 12.  RE: Hurricane Dorian

    Posted 09-08-2019 09:27 AM
    Prof. Barua is right on point.
    I spend at least a month every year with friends in Greece and am always challenged with the question, why we build everything with lumber in the U.S. only to see whole communities blown away annually in tornadoes and hurricanes then to be rebuilt again, in place, with "boards". (Housing built on barrier beaches on our East Coast, unheard of on the modern Aegean, is not even in the discussion. )
    Everything in Greece, from the smallest house to the largest commercial installation, is built by cast-in-place reinforced concrete. Footings, beams, columns and slabs are cast; openings are filled in with ceramic blocks as wiring and piping are imbeded and pre-assembled doors and windows are hung. All is finished off with plaster and stucco. True, there are no forests for commercial lumbering in Greece, but there is also the matter of building codes in an area with a history of earthquakes.
    Why, I am asked, does the richest country in the world accept a building practice that assures annual destruction on such a broad scale? My explanations about history, culture, local traditions, economics and architecture are unconvincing. Each time we read about another U.S. mid-western trailer park, southern village or East Coast community being swept away by nature, I get the same questions all over again.
    My preference for a Cape Cod cottage over a concrete block house is unconvincing to my Greek friends, many of whom are civil engineers and architects.

    Robert W. Foster, PE, PLS
    P.O. Box 752
    Hopkinton, MA 01748
    robertwf97@...


    ------------------------------
    Robert Foster P.E., L.S., M.ASCE
    Owner
    Hopkinton MA
    ------------------------------



  • 13.  RE: Hurricane Dorian

    Posted 10-20-2019 08:00 AM
    The human behavioral phenomena directly connected to this topic that always challenges me
    is the one where despite credible notice of the pending, severe storm system
    with repeated notice to the public to evacuate, so many still "Wait to see."

    Arms-length from ones right to do so, in fact such hazardous choices place
    others . . .neighbors, police, medical, military, etc....in harms way when they
    reach back in extremely threatening situations to help.

    Q. Given our nations current predisposition with "Rights," wonder if anyone has
    knowledge of . . . pardon the expression. . . mandatory evacuation of citizens once
    a certain level of storm system has been achieved?

    And 'yes,' I accept that even this question, itself, is radical.

    Cheers,
    Bill

    ------------------------------
    William M. Hayden Jr., Ph.D., P.E., CMQ/OE, F.ASCE
    Buffalo, N.Y.

    "It is never too late to be what you might have been." -- George Eliot 1819 - 1880
    ------------------------------



  • 14.  RE: Hurricane Dorian

    Posted 10-21-2019 02:52 AM
    https://www.cbsnews.com/news/hurricane-irma-homeless-held-against-will/

    Yes.  During Hurricane Irma, the city of Miami held people in custody against their will.  They used the Baker Act that allowed for temporary holding for mental evaluation.

    As far as just leaving ahead of time... some hurricane areas are rather remote and poverty stricken.  They simply don't have the means to evacuate fast enough.  Others stay to protect their property.

    So much preparation and response happens at a local level.  A military scale operation would be required and even that takes time.

    We saw a massive evacuation during Katrina and even that was not enough.  The Superdome is only so big and it sustained damage.  The busing operation to the Astrodrome displaced folks for days, weeks, months, and likely permanently.

    ------------------------------
    Chad Morrison P.E., M.ASCE
    Professional Engineer
    Greenville RI
    ------------------------------