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Cognitive Biases

  • 1.  Cognitive Biases

    Posted 02-08-2021 02:26 PM

    This is a fascinating and I think fun topic and I am hoping others will weigh in with their own experience, particularly as seen or experienced in engineering practice. I first became aware of this topic in the early 1990 when first exposed to the concept of decision quality (a future topic) and in particular the disabling role of anchoring.

    As  a brief background, the notion of cognitive biases was first identified by Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman in work published in the early 1970s. The role cognitive biases play in everyday life has now become far ranging from Behavioral Economics to baseball's Sabermetrics. They are also also making their into engineering, e.g., February's free paper: Value of Information on Resilience Decision-Making in Repeated Disaster Environments.

    Examples of cognitive biases - also referred to as heuristics - include:

    • Anchoring - Why we tend to rely heavily upon the first piece of information we receive?
    • Availability - Why do we tend to think that things that happened recently are more likely to happen again?
    • IKEA effect - Why do we place disproportionately high value on things we helped to create?
    • Representativeness  - Why do we use similarity to gauge statistical probability?

    Finally, if you read and liked Michael Lewis' book Moneyball I highly recommend his follow up book the Undoing Project. The  provides the why behind former. There's also a nice article from the New Yorker The Two Friends Who Changed How We Think About How We Think that serves as a great intro to the overall subject of cognitive biases.



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    Mitch Winkler P.E., M.ASCE
    Houston, TX
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  • 2.  RE: Cognitive Biases

    Posted 02-15-2021 06:39 PM
    I'm really interested to see if anyone has some examples of this in their engineering experience.

    One way I have seen it is in developers or other clients having an extremely difficult time accepting changes from what they were initially told. (For example, if unknown geotechnical conditions are discovered on site, they may want a second opinion even though this information is being delivered by the same professional that delivered the initial analysis based on the borings.) 

    For this reason, I think it is critical that we, as engineers, are very careful how we present initial information since that first piece of information is often held so tightly as fact.

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    Heidi Wallace EI, P.E., M.ASCE
    P.E.
    Tulsa OK
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  • 3.  RE: Cognitive Biases

    Posted 02-22-2021 09:16 AM
    Part of your job is salesmanship to prepare the client for potential setbacks beyond your control. By nature, developers are Type A and in a hurry to complete a project. Setbacks bug them and you are the easiest person to vent on. That goes with the territory. With time you learn good clients from bad clients.

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    Gordon England P.E., D.WRE(Ret.), M.ASCE
    PROJECT MANAGER
    Cocoa Beach FL
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  • 4.  RE: Cognitive Biases

    Posted 02-22-2021 10:51 AM
    I can tell Gordon has been doing this for a while and I appreciated his comment " Setbacks bug them". I've literally told my design team on more than one occasion "I'm paying for your time and expertise, right now its just time and I need you to listen to me vent for a moment."

    For our younger engineers.....Yes, setbacks bug developers...like a lot!!! LOL

    This is because development projects are a lot like gambling.  You see....the goal of a development project is to make a profit on an investment. So what are the choices one has for a profit from an investment. A developer could put money in the stock market and leave it there, or could take their money to Vegas and put it all on red. But they choose to develop real estate for the illusion of control and because they take pride in the works and/or genuinely enjoy what they do. We hire experts to help navigate the rough waters. We get frustrated when our captain's run the ship through rough seas. We know they don't control the seas but we hope we they are good enough to see it coming and navigate appropriatly.

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    Jesse Kamm PhD, PMP, A.M.ASCE
    Senior Vice President of Construction Management
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