Despite a number of prognostications, some of which are rooted in the COVID-19 pandemic, there remains much uncertainty about the future of oil demand. This, in fact, will likely make the coming years more volatile as an investment could lag emerging demands in the developing world. While we could see a greater move away from oil in developed economies, the sheer scale of demands from the more than 6.4 billion people in the developing and less-developed economies of Asia, Latin America, Africa, the Middle East, and elsewhere will drive the future of the oil market. The last 30 years have highlighted that a decline in oil’s share of the global energy mix does not translate into a decline in oil demand, especially if total energy demand continues to grow. It is also important to recognize that other energy sources face their own set of difficulties in the development of their supply chains as they seek the scale necessary to meet projected energy needs. Hence, the uncertainties of the coming decades are significant and will carry challenges for consumers, governments, international relations, and the energy industry.
Speaker: Kenneth Medlock, Senior Director, Center for Energy Studies, Baker Institute for Public Policy, Director, Master of Energy Economics, Rice University